This Saturday night, we've got another big UFC pay-per-view coming our way! Smarks Anonymous is back with our preview and predictions for the big event!
UFC Heavyweight Championship
BROCK LESNAR (c) vs CAIN VELASQUEZ
The reigning, defending UFC Heavyweight Champion, Brock Lesnar might be facing his most demanding title defense in undefeated Knockout-Artist, Cain Velasquez. There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind -- probably even Brock’s -- that if Brock chooses to try to stand and exchange with Velasquez, he’ll most likely be put to sleep inside the first round. While I’m sure he’s been working on his stand-up game, it would be a surprise to me if he came into this fight with the tools to knock Velasquez out, outside a fluke-type counter punch. Please don’t misunderstand, I’m not saying there’s no chance Brock can knock Cain out, but it will MOST LIKELY not be due to superior striking skill.
On paper, Brock’s obvious game-plan would be for him to cover up effectively on his feet and try to counter one of Cain’s punches with a well-timed take down and try to either pound him out from there or pull off another surprising submission victory. The question is if Brock will be able to get the fight where he wants it. While Cain will be giving up anywhere from twenty to forty pounds to Brock, he is also a legitimate NCAA Division I wrestling in his own right. Surely, with his presumed overwhelming advantage on the feet, he’s been tuning his wrestling up and has been practicing stuffing takedowns from much-larger opponents.
One thing Lesnar did show in his most recent title defense against Shane Carwin this past July at UFC 116 is that he can absorb an incredible amount of punishment and still come back to win the fight. In the first round against Carwin, he even admits to being close on multiple occasions to being knocked out cold. Carwin bore down on him for five whole minutes, peppering him with jabs from the standing position before knocking him to the ground and assuming his comfortable position on top and hammering his opponents face. But the Champion battled back in the second round, securing the takedown early and subsequently locking in a match-ending Arm Triangle Choke for the win.
Velasquez, quite conversely has yet to have his chin REALLY tested. Only three of his wins have seen time beyond the opening round, and all three were more of his own inability to put his opponent away than their ability to tag him effectively. It will be interesting to see if Brock is able to land even a couple clean shots on the feet, and if Cain can withstand stiff shots from a two hundred-eighty pounder.
This is an incredibly interesting match-up for me, and one I will be tuning into intently on the 23rd. At the end of the night, I expect to see Brock Lesnar’s hand raised after a third round TKO.
JAKE SHIELDS vs MARTIN KAMPMANN
Shields, the UFC’s new star signing from rival promotion, Strikeforce, is coming off an impressive (and widely unexpected) defense of his Strikeforce Middleweight Championship against MMA legend, Dan Henderson. He brings with him the unfortunate infamy of also being part of the “Strikeforce Brawl” (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mj7gAmDLH-4) that ensued after that fight. But he also brings with him an impressive 14-fight win streak, and with a convincing win at UFC 121, he could erase any negative press from his stint in Strikeforce.
The only problem with this is that his UFC debut is against Martin Kampmann, who is a truly exceptional fighter in his own right.
You can look at any of Jake Shields past fights to get a sneak peak at what his game plan is going to be coming in. Shields has often been criticized by the MMA media for being a fairly boring fighter. Even his win over Henderson, while quite impressive, was not exactly a compelling, exciting fight. Shields likes to take you down, grind you out and pepper you with effective and damaging strikes before he gets hold of you and makes you tap out. What Kampmann has going for him is the fact that his ground game from the bottom is very strong, and Shields won’t be able to “lay and pray” on him for fear that he himself might get caught in a triangle or something of the like.
While I do see Kampmann putting up a formidable fight, I see Jake Shields proving himself to be Championship material with a unanimous decision win.
DIEGO SANCHEZ vs PAULO THIAGO
Since his fight with Clay Guida, Diego Sanchez has honestly looked like a shell of his former self. BJ Penn made him look as though he’d never had a professional fight in his life when they met in December ’09 for the lightweight crown, and then dropped a decision to John Hathaway in his return to Welterweight this past May. The man who was once touted as a legitimate top ten pound-for-pound has floundered in his two most recent fights.
Whereas, barring losses from Welterweight title contenders Martin Kampmann and John Fitch, Paulo Thiago’s record remains exemplary. Thiago was put on the map by a stunning uppercut KO of GSP’s next challenger, Josh Koscheck and since then, dropped a hard-fought decision to Fitch before beating prospects, Mike Swick and Jacob Volkmann.
If Diego Sanchez has any hope of returning to the title picture, he is going to have to show up in Anaheim with the same intensity and dedication that led him to the big dance in the first place. He’s is facing a black belt in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Judo, as well as a member of the elite police force in Brazil, BOPE. He’s going to want to keep this fight on the feet using his formidable wrestling and get the best of Thiago with his boxing, an area that Paulo has had well-documented struggles with. Should be be taken down, he’s going to have to unleash those vicious elbows his throws from the bottom, keep Thiago’s posture down and keep his arms and legs out of danger while trying to fight his way to his feet.
I see Diego Sanchez getting back on form here and picking up a decision victory, but he’s going to have to come into the Octagon far more prepared than he has for his last two fights.
TITO ORTIZ vs MATT HAMILL
Let me start by saying that if Ortiz loses this fight, he better hang up the gloves. People want to talk about how LIddell should retire, and maybe that’s true, but Ortiz hasn’t won a fight since October 2006, against Ken Shamrock, and hasn’t beaten a quality, on-the-rise fighter since he beat Forrest Griffin in April 2006. Since then, he’s dropped fights to the Iceman himself, Chuck Liddell, future Light-Heavyweight Champion, Lyoto Machida and a rubber-match with Forrest Griffin as well as a draw with Rashad Evans. Needless to say, Ortiz needs to win this fight if he hopes to make a case for himself in any future match-ups.
Matt Hamill, on the other hand has looked fairly strong in all of his most recent fights, except of course the thrashing he received at the hands of rising star, Jon Jones, a fight he won by controversial Disqualification following unintentional “twelve-to-six” (straight up and down) elbows from the mounted position. Most recently, Hamill ousted Keith Jardine by unanimous decision in what was a well-fought fight by both men.
The interesting thing about this fight is neither man are renown for their striking prowess, but their wrestling. Often times, what happens when two experienced wrestlers square off, what happens is their wrestling cancels each other out and they stand in front of each other and throw hands until one of them drops, or the horn goes for the third time. It will be interesting if these guys are able to snuff out the takedown of the other, and who has trained boxing the hardest. It will, most-likely, be the difference in this fight.
I see Ortiz getting motivated for this fight and using his experience to come up with a W in this fight, most likely by another decision.
Man, I see this card having a LOT of decisions ... not usually a good thing.
BRENDAN SHAUB vs GABRIEL GONZAGA
Since being touted as the next Heavyweight Champion after the brutal head kick knock out of Mirko Cro Cop, Gabriel Gonzaga has struggled against some of the sports premier heavyweights. Gonzaga seems to be pigeon-holed as the Clay Guida of the heavyweight division: succeeds against undercard fighters, but never rises to the occasion and beats anyone near the top of the division. Since beating Cro Cop, Gonzaga has beaten guys like Justin McCully, Chris Tuchscherer and Josh Hendricks, but fallen short to UFC Hall-of-Famer, Randy Couture, Fedor-Killer, Fabricio Werdum, and future Heavyweight title contenders, Shane Carwin and Junior Dos Santos. If Gonzaga is going to make a run at the title again, not only does he need to win this fight, but he needs to win it convincingly.
If there was ever a fight for Ultimate Fighter finalist, Brendan Shaub to show that he is going to be a staple in the heavyweight division in the years to come, it’s this one. Losing to Roy Nelson in the finals of the Ultimate Fighter 10, Shaub has rebounded nicely, winning two in a row. But Gonzaga is his biggest test to date and he’s almost in a win-win situation in this fight. Really, all he would have to do to make a name for himself is to make this fight competitive, even if he loses. Despite his struggles, Gonzaga is still a premier heavyweight and a win over Napao would put him in a great position for a few more big fights.
Both men are trained in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, though Gonzaga has the advantage as he has a black belt, while Shaub has achieved only purple. With Gonzaga’s stand-up ability, I don’t expect him to be uncomfortable in any position in this fight. He most-likely has the advantage on the feet and the ground, so it’s going to up to Shaub to have worked hard in camp in attempt to thwart Gonzaga.
In the end, I give almost all the advantages to Gonzaga and I see him finishing this one with a submission in the second round.
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Court McGee def. Ryan Jensen
Patrick Cote def. Tom Lawler
Daniel Roberts def. Mike Guymon
Sam Stout def. Paul Taylor
Chris Comozzi def. Dong Yi Yang
Jon Madsen def. Gilbert Yvel
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